North Korea's School-Age Population

Unit 2: Population and Health

10/28/16

Link to article can be found here

Synopsis:

          Recently, there has been a study done about North Korea’s population. What has been found is that the school age population is set to drastically drop by 2040. The projections show that the kids enrolled in kindergarten all the way up to high school will drop to low numbers. This could be because of the way the country is governed. It could be predicted that they are leaving the country by these numbers because they are trying to find a better life. The difference in population from its counterpart, South Korea, is vast. These changes in population will affect the countries dependency ratio and will have much less people of the working age when the time comes. These rates may seem harmless but they have a lot of unforeseen consequences.

Analysis:

          The new study done by South Korean shows the projected decline of school age children in North Korea which is very alarming for the country. In the next 24 years, until 2040, the school age population will drop from the current 4.14 million to 4.05 million. This is a 90,000 drop which is huge. It will unbalance everything in the country. It will affect the sex ratio because when people start leaving these rates are no longer precise. It is easier for males to leave so it could leave the country with a larger female to male ratio. The study also says that it is possible that this decline may even take place before 2040. As if now though, the study predicts that from 2016 to 2040 the elementary school population of the current 2 million is expected to drop to 1.95 million. The middle school population is also predicted to go from 1.07 to 1.04 million. Lastly, the high school population of 1.14 is thought to drop to 1.06 in 2040. These numbers are smaller than North Korea’s Counterpart, South Korea. In South Korea the school age population is 5.9 million and North Korea currently has 4.14 million. The lowering of that number even further will impact everything in the country. These numbers could be as a result of parents sending their children out of the country to get a better education or a better life. Since, the parents aren’t the ones leaving as we can see from the rates, we can assume that the children may be being sent by themselves. This will affect the dependency ratio because when the school age generation grows up they won’t be enough to supply for the dependents. Their numbers will be too little to support the elderly and the youth. Currently, looking at a population pyramid for North Korea in 2016 I can see that the youth are a little low but still normal compared to the working class. When these numbers drop even lower is when they are going to have a problem. This South Korean study recommends that North Korea create teacher training courses and others that would expand educator understanding of students who might want to leave. The study also suggests a division of responsibility between Seoul’s unification and education ministries so that not all the decisions are up to one group. Overall, these projections are very alarming and something should be done so that the country could fix the problem.